A Vice President Kamala Harris administration in now possible. As a key partner in President Biden’s climate agenda, is now the presumptive 2024 Democratic presidential nominee. Harris is expected to maintain Biden’s climate policies while potentially adopting more progressive stances to inspire young voters and contrast with former President Trump’s fossil fuel-friendly policies.
Going Beyond Biden’s Climate Legacy
Many climate groups instantly applauded President Biden’s decision to drop out of the race and to endorse Vice President Harris. The League of Conservation Voters (LCV) said President Biden has been “the most pro-environment, pro-climate president ever and by far.” Given President Biden’s significant climate achievements—notably the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)—climate action will be a key part of Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign narrative. Tiernan Sittenfeld of the LCV said Vice President Harris “has been a critically important part of the Biden-Harris administration’s incredible accomplishments on climate and clean energy, environmental justice, conservation, and more” and expects “she will run on finishing the job.”
Despite the Biden-Harris administration’s strong record on climate, the US is still not on target to meet its 2030 goal of reducing emissions by 50-52% below 2005 levels. Against this backdrop, VP Harris will need to finish implementing Biden’s climate agenda while expanding it with new policies and regulations to meet that target.
Vice President Harris’ Record on Climate
Harris’ record on climate change throughout her career suggests she will likely be more progressive than President Biden. VP Harris may be less friendly to the fossil fuel industry than her predecessors. As Attorney General of California, Harris pursued legal actions against major oil companies, demonstrating her firm stance on climate issues. These include a lawsuit against Phillips 66 and ConocoPhillips that collected a settlement of $11.5 million, and led an investigation of an oil company resulting in conviction on nine criminal charges.
As a Senator, she co-sponsored the Green New Deal and the Climate Equity Act of 2020 and earned a high “lifetime score” of 90% from the LCV. During her 2019 presidential campaign, Kamala Harris supported a ban on fracking, a carbon tax, and called for $10 trillion in climate spending. She also pledged to create an Office of Climate and Environmental Justice Accountability to spotlight solutions for disadvantaged communities.
Top VP Candidates and Their Climate Credentials
Harris’ choice for a running mate could complement her climate change credentials or raise concerns amongst climate-focused voters. Potential disagreements over climate policy with her pick of VP may stir some conversations on the campaign trail but Harris’ positions will likely prevail. Top candidates for her Vice President pick are rumored to be Governors Andy Beshear (Kentucky), Roy Cooper (North Carolina), Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania), Tim Walz (Minnesota), and Senator Mark Kelly (Arizona).
Governor Walz of Minnesota has the strongest climate credentials as he has positioned his state as a leader on the issue and signed legislation last year requiring electricity to be carbon-free by 2040.
Kentucky’s Beshear is the governor of a conservative coal producing state, forcing him to take middle-of-the-road positions on climate and energy. He recognizes climate change exists but has been reluctant to address it publicly, likely due to his very conservative electorate.
North Carolina’s Cooper has seen his climate agenda undermined by the state’s Republican legislature but has been more vocal publicly about climate change and set a goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030 and to stop adding carbon to the atmosphere by 2050.
Governor Shapiro of Pennsylvania, a key swing state, has proposed exiting the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, a cap-and-trade program for the Northeast’s power sector, in favor of a state-run program generating mixed reactions amongst environmentalists. He has pushed Pennsylvania to increase renewable energy generation, but is also walking a fine line by promoting his state’s production of natural gas.
Senator Kelly of Arizona, another key swing state, has earned a reputation as a moderate who is pro-climate but was against the Green New Deal, arguing it was too expansive. He serves on important energy and environment committees in the Senate, championed key provisions in the IRA for drought mitigation and led bipartisan legislation providing financial incentives to farmers for practices that store carbon in soils.
Will Harris Mobilize Young, Progressive, Climate-Focused Voters?
Vice President Harris is likely to adopt more ambitious climate positions to energize Democratic voters, especially the youth. ClearView Energy Partners noted Harris might use aggressive climate policies to boost under-30 voter turnout in swing states. Tufts University research shows young people prioritizing climate are significantly more likely to vote and prefer Democrats.
The youth vote could also be bolstered if groups like the Sunrise Movement endorse Harris. Though they haven’t yet, the Sunrise Movement acknowledges Harris’ support for the Green New Deal and opposition to the fossil fuel industry as strong climate leadership.
Climate Action vs. Energy Dominance
Harris will likely emphasize her climate credentials and warn that Trump would dismantle Biden’s climate achievements, including the IRA. This strategy aims to highlight the stark contrast between her and Trump, who plans to weaken climate regulations.
Trump and his running mate, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, will likely criticize the Biden-Harris climate policies as harmful to consumers and the energy sector, despite the US producing a record amount of oil and gas in 2023. They will promise “energy dominance” by expanding domestic drilling and exports to reduce global prices.
The fossil fuel industry’s significant donations to the Republican party, and Trump’s alleged offer to trade political favors for campaign donations from the sector, ensures he will increase criticism of Harris’ climate policies. To win, Harris must convince voters that her climate ambitions will drive economic prosperity and counter arguments that they will raise prices or cut jobs.
What Could a Harris Administration Hold for Climate Action?
A Kamala Harris administration would likely enter the Oval Office with a mandate to be more ambitious and focused on environmental justice than the Biden administration’s first days saw. She would be in a position to ensure the Biden administration’s accomplishments continue to be enacted and ensure commitments to environmental justice are met.
Her ability to go beyond the accomplishments of the Biden administration would largely depend on the power balance in Congress between Republicans vs. Democrats, and within her party between Progressives vs. Moderates. How this plays out in the 2024 election cycle will determine whether significant or piecemeal actions can take place.
